Murray State vs. Appalachian State preview
MBB: The Racers hope to earn a split at the Fort Myers Tip-Off
Here’s what you need to know about this morning’s game:
Appalachian State (2-2) vs. Murray State (2-2) — 11:00am CST at the Suncoast Credit Union Arena in Fort Myers, Florida
KenPom ratings: Appalachian State — 118; Murray State — 165
Series: This is the first-ever meeting between the schools
You can stream the game here
You can listen to the game on Froggy 103 or on GoRacers.com with myself and Dave Winder on the call — pregame starts at 10:30am
Vegas line: Appalachian State is a -2.5-point favorite
Murray State scouting report
The first thing to watch will be the start of the game to see how the Racers emotionally respond to Monday’s stunning loss to UNC Wilmington. All signs yesterday point to the team being in good spirits and having moved past the defeat, but we’ll find out the real answer at the tip.
From an analytics perspective, Murray State continues to be elite in several areas this season:
The Racers are turning the ball over on 13.5% of their possessions — that’s the 36th-best rate in the country. The national average is 18.1%.
The Racers are giving up an offensive rebound on just 20.4% of their opponents’ misses — that’s the 8th-best rate in the country. The national average is 29.7%.
Finally, the Racers are allowing opponents to assist on made baskets 29.8% of the time — that’s the 3rd-best rate in the country. The national average is 50.0%.
Free throws will be something to watch today. The law of averages has to catch up at some point here early in the season for the Racers. Murray State made 74.1% of their free throws last year. This year, they’ve only knocked down 68.6%.
Defensively, Appalachian State is an average three-point shooting team at 32.4%. Through three Division I games, the Racers have struggled to defend the three-point line, giving up 39.2% from deep. Murray State did a better job Monday against a UNCW team that was shooting north of 50% from three, so they’ll hope to carry over that effort today.
Offensively, JaCobi Wood has blistered the nets so far this season, shooting 55.9% from the field and 60.0% (12-of-20) from three point range. That’s the 7th-best percentage in the country for qualified shooters. Wood dished out his 300th career assist in the loss to UNCW.
Rob Perry still leads the Racers with 17.0 points per game. He caught fire late in the first half Monday to key a 13-0 run that pushed Murray State into the lead. Perry scored 20 points against UNCW, which was the 30th-time he’s scored 20+ points in a game in his career.
Appalachian State scouting report
The Mountaineers come into today’s game after hammering UNCW yesterday, 86-56. Late in the first half, App State trailed 34-24. In the final 22:50 of the game, they outscored the Seahawks 62-22. The win helped the Mountaineers soar 48 spots in the KenPom rankings from 166 to 118.
Appalachian State has four players averaging in double-figures, led by Donovan Gregory. The 5th-year senior forward is averaging 14.3 points per game, and also leads the team in assists with 3.5 per game.
They are an elite shot blocking team, rejecting 16.0% of their opponents’ shots — that’s the 17th-best rate in the country. The national average is just 9.4%.
The Mountaineers, much like the Racers, keep opponents off the offensive glass, allowing opponents to rebound their misses 21.2% of the time — the 21st-best rate in America.
If this comes down to a free throw shooting contest, it doesn’t appear App State will be comfortable in that situation. Last season, they were the 7th-worst free throw shooting team in the country at 65.1%. This season, they’re the 6th-worst shooting team at 58.7%.
Yesterday, the Mountaineers played bully-ball at times with UNCW, backing the Seahawks guards down and repeatedly scoring over them. They appeared to break UNCW’s will during that dominant second-half. The Racers have shown the ability to fight back when facing deficits this season, so hopefully that won’t be an issue today if Murray State falls behind.
I’ll have a ‘Ride Home’ podcast posted later tonight after we’re able to finish the long ride home from Florida.
Start Justin tell him he’s playing this amount of minutes no matter how it’s going and within three games, he’ll be scoring 15 to 20 points a night.
Which App State will we see? Team that got whipped by Northern Illinois and was down 10 to UNCW? Or the team that steamroller the Seahawks in the 2nd half? They definitely have a size advantage, if not a skill advantage. Racers need to find a way.