Racers dominant in new and exciting ways in win over Little Rock
Also the old ways
So we’re five games in now, or about one-sixth through the season. Here’s what we can say with confidence:
This team is fun to watch, no?
Maybe it’s, in part, a reaction to the...um, plodding pace of the last few seasons. Maybe it’s all the threes and the pressing and the turnovers. Maybe it’s the 4-1 start, the best start since the 2021-22 season.
The Racers dominated most of the game against the team that can largely be seen as their replacement in their former home, 89-68 over a Little Rock team picked as favorites to win the Ohio Valley Conference.
Your (first) fun stat of the night: It featured the Racers fifth *kill shot* of the season in a 17-0 first half run. (Kill shots are generally considered a 10-0 run.) That run, sparked by big threes, all but ended the competitive portion of the evening.
“We want to have it all the time,” Coach Miller said after the game. “This team is capable because we have really good offensive players. If we get stops, we get defensive rebounds, if we cause a little havoc increasing turnovers, that we can get these runs.”
Despite a largely dominant victory, Murray State didn’t get off to a fast start offensively against Little Rock’s trapping defense, hitting just one of their first five from the field and largely letting the Trojans dictate the tempo in the opening minutes. Miller responded with a full line change, as the Racers brought in five fresh players at the 13-minute mark, sitting the four remaining starters on the floor.
“We were ready for the traps,” Mason Miller, who along with Brayden Shorter led the Racers with 16 points, said. “So after you break that, I mean, they only have guards down the bottom. So after that, it’s basically just layup central.
Following the subs, Shorter immediately hit back-to-back threes, sparking a Racers offense now playing with decisiveness. Murray went off on a 22-6 run over the next eight minutes, including 17 unanswered within the stretch, to take a 36-20 lead.
Following their second timeout of the half at the 5:23 mark, the Trojans largely took the air out of the ball over the final minutes, as Murray took a 43-23 lead into the locker room.
The second half started with a more workmanlike performance from the start. Jackson made big shots early, Murray draw five Little Rock fouls in first five minutes of the halves, and the threes...the threes were falling like rain from a November storm.
Okay, so this is what happens when Murray just makes all the threes, eh?
After 23 minutes, Murray State was 12-22 (55%) from three-point range. While Murray has been volume shooters from behind the three point arc, the Racers well overperformed their 36% as a team entering the evening, with Shorter just 31% despite a team-high in three attempts. Neither of those number are fully accurate any more...Well, Shorter still leads in three-point attempts, that’s safe. (4-9 tonight, including a roughly 26-footer. For fun.)
Sure, they finished 14-30, which sounds less impressive, but is still a very cool 47%.
Even more promising sign for the future: Murray pulling away in the first half without leaning on Jackson, King.
Jackson had 13 and King 8, both well below their season averages of 20 and 15 respectively. Even Domon, the Racers other double-figure scorer on the year netted just nine. Tonight, it was Miller Mason’s and Shorter’s turn, both leading the Racers with 16 points.
“It always feels good, making shots,” Mason said. “We saw a lot of duded hit shots. When that happens, everyone gets excited. Our offense gets better. Everything really just starts getting more involved into the game.”
“I mean, you don’t know who it’s going to be,” Miller added. “It could be our first unit guys or 2nd unit guys. It could be Mason one night. It could be Javon one night. It could be Freddie. Who knows?”
Defensive rebounding is still somewhat a thing
The good news: Little Rock only had 17 second chance points to Murray’s 15. The bad thing, it wasn’t for a lack of offensive rebounding, as the Trojans netted 16 off 34 misses. (47%. Anything above 30 is generally considered...not great. 47 is greater than 30.)
Forcing live-ball turnovers continue to be a big advantage.
Shorter said in post-game that the Racers didn’t hit their turnover target, which makes me wonder what their turnover target was as they forced 21. But the main thing were how many of those turnovers were live ball turnovers, letting the Racers push the tempo on offense and keeping Little Rock from setting up their defense.
Fun fact: Shorter had his first two-point attempts of the season
...not counting the exhibition against Xavier. 2-2 inside the three arc, by the way.
How much do those last few minutes matter?
So, if there’s something to be frustrated about, it that the Racers allowed 45 second-half points, and only won the half by one. Miller was clearly frustrated during his post-game interview on the Murray State Sports Network with Jeff Bidwell at how the Racers closed the game. But does it matter?
Yes. But also kind of no. You’ve likely read Bidwell pumping out the KenPom numbers daily, and while the Racers are rising throughout the year, that rise is slow. Wins at home don’t have a lot of weight, and wins against teams more than 100-ranks lower than you (Little Rock is at 240) also don’t have a lot of impact.
And without getting too technical, margin of victory is a factor. (It’s not a wholly direct factor, but offensive and defensive efficiency are, and that’s calculated by points you score and allow, compared to the performance of similar teams.) And Murray is a top 80 team in offensive efficiency and top 160 defensively. Those numbers aren’t bad, but letting off the gas reduces limited opportunities for those to sweepingly change.
But how much does that KenPom ranking matter, when the top of the conference is basically all stuck close to the 100-150 range? (Somehow, five MVC teams rank between 130 - 139, which feels hard to do.) It’s No Man’s Land: No teams great enough to get ‘big’ wins over in a super meaningful way to boost the metrics to put Murray in range of an at-large bid, which is really what you’re looking for out of the metrics. (Sure, a better seed maybe, but you’d like to have a chance to not have your entire season come down to three games in three days)
It’s one of those things that will drive a coach crazy. Yes, in a otherwise sterling win.
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